The realist, someone who calls the odds very precisely, is going to have some trouble, because the organization favors optimists, those with the ‘Can Do’ spirit. A ‘Can Do’ spirit means, among other things, that you think you can do things you cannot do.
Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Laureate in Economics, on Idea Lab
In this interview he also states that the key trait of entrepreneurs is ‘delusional optimism’.
Realists are forced out by the organizational immune system, especially when confronting senior leadership about the cognitive biases inherent in most policy setting. At the most obvious, pointing out that some initiative is based on optimistic projections will lead to the realist being sidelined as a trouble-maker intent on demotivating people.
There is no really good intervention possible to counter irrational exuberance once an elite group in an entrepreneurial organization have collectively decided to move forward. The fact that one in ten or one in a hundred turns out to create a billion dollar business justifies the waste and pain of the failed nine or ninety-nine efforts, at least in the mind of the entrepreneur.
The fast-and-loose business has room for realists, because the core foundation is about being engaged in your work, and connecting to others through a deep culture based on constant learning and adaptation. It is not about mobilizing people into collective delusional mindsets or quests. Laissez-faire management starts with an appreciation of the cognitive biases underlying group dynamics and decision making, while entrepreneurialism is based upon glorifying bias and applauds the 1% who win the gamble as triumphant geniuses, instead of just dumb luck.
(via stoweboyd)